Twenty condos (classified as "Townhouse" and "Apartment Style" in the MLS), closed in February, one less than January. Active listings as of 3/19/08 are at 354, up from January, pushing inventory out to 18 months from 16. This is also known as the absorption rate, or the length of time it would take to sell the current active listings if no new listings were added and the sales rate remained constant (354 listings / 20 sold listings per month).
Average sales price has increased from January's $190,466 to February's $240,650.
As of 3/19/08, 7 condos have closed in March.
| Sold - 20 Properties Found 2/1/2008 - 2/29/2008 |
| | Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 984 | 1 | 1 | $123,700 | $120,000 | 7 |
| Avg | 1341 | 2 | 2.05 | $256,840 | $240,650 | 114 |
| Max | 1758 | 3 | 2.5 | $545,000 | $525,000 | 343 |
| Active - 354 Properties Found as of 3/19/2008 |
| | Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 560 | 1 | 1 | $109,900 | $0 | 0 |
| Avg | 1260 | 2 | 1.96 | $331,398 | $0 | 128 |
| Max | 3217 | 4 | 3.5 | $3,300,000 | $0 | 583 |
Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
February had 12,932 new listings, a bit down from January's 15,903. Sold listings moved up to 3,448 from January's 2,912. With fewer new listings and higher sales, we are at least going in the right direction, but still a long ways to go to bring down inventory.
Median list price was slightly down to $241,900 from January's $249,900. Median sale price dropped to $213,800 from $220,000. On average, median sale price has been 89% of median list over the last 12 months.
Average list price dropped 7% to $379,928 from $406,647. Average sale price was also down about 7% to $293,100 from $313,400.
Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)
2001 - 2008 New Listing Chart
2001 - 2008 Sold Charts
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
According to Prevent.com, Tempe is ranked number 1 as Arizona’s best walking city, and number 66 in the nation. Also, Tempe has a high 97 out of 100 walkability rating on WalkScore.com for having lots of entertainment, shopping, and dining within the downtown area.
For more information on Tempe’s efforts to improve transportation options, visit the Tempe in Motion website.
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com.com
This article has been moved to my new blog site here:
Trulia Voices is a forum for asking real estate questions. Here is a recent question that I thought would be of general interest:
“The house I'm interested in sold for $307,000 in 2006. The asking price is now $359,000. That seems to high for me with the market in a slump. What do you think?”
Here is the response I gave:
“Of course, the seller can "ask" for any price they want. Will they get a buyer? Not likely if it's overpriced. There can be several valid reasons for the price increase. Perhaps the $307,000 was a "bargain" price, and now the new owner is selling at true market value. Perhaps they made significant improvements. Perhaps the local area has experienced appreciation due to other influences. Without checking comparable properties around this home in its' current condition, no one can say what the current market value should be.”
There's a tendency to think that just because the overall market is currently in decline, that all homes must lose value from their previous selling price. As I indicated, there can be many reasons for a home to hold its' value, or to even increase in value. Every situation is different, and you need to look at the specific local market area, condition of the home, and comparable sales to determine what the current value may be for a given home.
There are areas of the country still experiencing price appreciation. In general, the Phoenix metro area is not one of them. However, even in the Phoenix market, there are areas that are doing better than others, such as Tempe. Location, location, location is still a key consideration.
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
January's sales trends update. Having now completed the first year of publishing this chart, I will now present the data in an ongoing rolling 12 month format. I think it's important to compare the data over a long period to get a better feel for how the market is changing.
January had 15,903 new listings, and as I predicted in my last update, significantly up from December's 8,837 (almost doubled). In fact, January 2008's listings were the 2nd highest compared to all of 2007. Meanwhile, sold listings dropped from December's 3,420 to 2,912, a 13 month low. Not a good trend if we want the inventory level to drop.
Median list price was flat to December at $249,000, while average list price spiked back up to November's level at $406,647. Median sales ($220,000, down $9K) and average sales ($313,400, up $400) did not change significantly.
Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)
2001 - 2008 New Listing Chart
2001 - 2008 Sold Charts
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
(This is a guest article by Richard Blair of Professional Mortgage Consultants, www.PMCHomeLoans.net)
One of the most frequently asked questions from borrowers is why home mortgage rates do not fall after Federal Reserve cuts rates. In fact, after each Federal rate cut I get many phone calls from borrowers that are already in the loan process expecting to hear about lower mortgage interest rates. On the other hand, others that have been fence sitting and waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during the recent five Fed rate cuts. This is difficult to explain to consumers who have watched a 2.25% reduction by the Fed with very little benefit in mortgage rates.
So that leaves us wondering whether a Fed rate cut is really good news for mortgage rates? You may be surprised to learn that the Federal government can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates. While a mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years the rate set by the Fed can change from one day to another.
After eleven years as a mortgage professional I have learned that the market works in cycles and that history repeats itself. That being said, we can learn from what happened to mortgage rates the last time the Federal Reserve was in a rate-cutting cycle.
The last time the Fed was in a lengthy rate cutting cycle was back in 2001 from January 3, 2001 to December 11, 2001. In the span of 11 months, they cut the Fed Funds rate 11 times with eight of those cuts by a half point. This resulted in a total of 4.75% in short-term interest rate cuts taking the Fed Funds Rate from 6.00% down to 1.75%. Now most uninformed people would naturally think because the Fed cut rates by so much during this time that mortgage rates would follow suit and trend lower as well. Not true. Mortgage rates actually moved higher during this time of significant rate cuts because of inflation. Inflation is the arch enemy of bonds so expect mortgage rates to increase as inflation rises. That is a very real concern currently, especially as the price at the gas pump continues to increase.
Keeping in mind that history repeats itself; let’s look at what happened with the Fed’s most recent cutting cycle, the first since 2001. The Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate last year in September, October, and December and again in January of 2008. The total of these cuts were about 2.25% in a 5- month period of time. After each of these Fed cuts the bond market took drastic losses resulting in higher long term mortgage interest rates. So we see history repeating itself from the Fed cuts in 2001.
By following the market trends very closely I have been able to save my clients thousands of dollars because I have been able to anticipate the rate increases and lock interest rates ahead of the Federal cuts. The strong emphasis that I put on Strategic Loan Planning for both refinances and purchases assures clients that they have chosen the best loan program. Many of the foreclosures that we are seeing today may very well have been avoided with proper loan planning from a mortgage consultant. My clients consistently comment that the most valuable part of the mortgage and home buying experience was our 60 minute Strategic Loan Planning meeting.
If you or someone you know is interested in refinancing or purchasing a home, please call and we can set up a Startegic Loan Planning meeting.
You can contact Richard at Rblair@pmchomeloans.net, 602-386-3366.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) has published the 2007 4th Quarter Economic and Market Watch Report, available here, along with prior reports. It covers extensive economic and housing data broken down by zip codes for Maricopa and Pima counties, general trends, and commentary from two National Association of Realtors economists.
Its' barometer of the buyer/seller market is firmly in the buyer's camp. Although average pricing has dropped by $10K from Q3'07 to Q4'07, the prediction is for higher Q1'08 pricing, along with fewer days on market. Q4 is traditionally a slow quarter, so there may be some pickup in Q1. I personally have seen a surge in buyer activity in late January and into February.
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
According to the median price charts from Altos Research, it appears that Tempe prices have finally started to bottom out around $300K. Only time will tell if the trend holds.
Except for Scottsdale, all other cities being tracked are still heading down. Scottsdale bottomed out back in October and has been headed up ever since with perhaps a hint of flattening again.
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
Twenty-one condos (classified as "Townhouse" and "Apartment Style" in the MLS), closed in January, in line with December's 22 sales. Active homes are currently at 345, again no real change with inventory remaining at about 16 months. As of 2/12/08, 5 condos have closed in February. Note - I'd love to be the agent to sell the $3.3M condo that's been active for 911 days - give me a call if you're ready to buy!
| Sold - 21 Properties Found 1/1/2008 - 1/31/2008 |
| | Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 623 | 1 | 1 | $118,900 | $118,900 | 0 |
| Avg | 1195 | 2 | 1.87 | $202,171 | $190,466 | 94 |
| Max | 1831 | 3 | 3 | $450,000 | $403,000 | 277 |
| | | | | | |
| Active - 345 Properties Found as of 2/12/2008 |
| | Square Feet | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 560 | 1 | 1 | $107,880 | $0 | 0 |
| Avg | 1234 | 2 | 1.94 | $305,942 | $0 | 129 |
| Max | 3217 | 4 | 3.5 | $3,300,000 | $0 | 911 |
Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com
I had commented awhile back on the question I typically get from buyers about the safety of various neighborhoods. I still get this question from almost every new buyer I meet. Of course, everyone wants to live in an area they consider safe. I just can't answer that question for them. Jonathan Dalton just posted an article that gives more perspective on the question.
Jim Cramer of Mad Money has totally reversed his stance on home buying. His previous prediction for the "bottom" was March 2008. With the recent steep Fed rate cuts, he says it’s time to buy a home now. The last cut "...has made a turnaround in housing "inevitable," he said." See the article and video.
Bit of a late update for December, but here it is..... Twenty-two condos (classified as "Townhouse" and "Apartment Style" in the MLS), closed in December, sharply up from Novembers thirteen. Active homes are currently at 344, not much change from my last report of 341. Based on December sales, inventory is about 16 months, pulling back from the previous 26. The Tempe single family detached home inventory is about 10 months. As of 1/29, 18 condos have closed so far in January.
| Sold - 22 Properties Found 12/1/07 - 12/31/07 |
| | Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 623 | 1 | 1 | $132,000 | $133,400 | 0 |
| Avg | 1273 | 2 | 2.11 | $231,075 | $219,104 | 129 |
| Max | 2257 | 4 | 3 | $469,000 | $430,000 | 381 |
| Active - 344 Properties Found as of 1/29/08 |
| | Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | List Price | Sale Price | Total DOM |
| Min | 560 | 1 | 1 | $107,880 | $0 | 1 |
| Avg | 1228 | 2 | 1.95 | $303,450 | $0 | 127 |
| Max | 3607 | 4 | 3.5 | $3,260,063 | $0 | 897 |
Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.RodSellsAZhomes.com